RATE WATCH
1. Mortgage Rates Reach 6.65% as Purchase Applications Slide 7%
Mortgage borrowing costs moved higher, and the change was felt most clearly in purchase activity: the seasonally adjusted purchase index fell 7% for the week.
HousingWire reports that mortgage applications shifted as average rates rose during the week ending July 10, 2026, citing the Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey.
HousingWire reports on the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) weekly survey for the week ending July 10, 2026. The survey included a seasonal adjustment for the Fourth of July holiday week.
- The average 30-year fixed rate for conforming loans rose to 6.65% from 6.58%, the highest level reported since August 2025. The jumbo average increased to 6.62% from 6.50%.
- The refinance index rose 4%, while the refinance share of total applications increased to 43.2% from 40.6%. Federal Housing Administration (FHA) and Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) refinance applications also increased, according to MBA.
- The seasonally adjusted purchase index declined 7% week over week and was below the prior year’s pace on an unadjusted comparison. Holiday timing affected weekly results.
Why it matters: Higher rates can raise monthly-payment considerations and may reduce near-term purchase demand, while refinance activity can still vary by loan type and borrower circumstances. Weekly figures are market indicators, not a rate quote or an assurance of savings.
Bottom line: For consumers and housing professionals, this report underscores how quickly weekly rate changes and holiday timing can influence application activity.
HOUSING SNAPSHOT
2. The Housing Gap Reached 4.7 Million Homes, But Growth Slowed Sharply
America’s housing shortage remained enormous in 2024, but its growth slowed substantially. Zillow estimates the deficit rose by just 43,438 homes, compared with increases of 256,847 in 2022 and 159,063 in 2023.
According to Zillow Housing Research, the national housing deficit grew by about 43,000 units in 2024, based on its analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data.
Zillow reports that its analysis of recently released U.S. Census Bureau data found the national housing deficit reached 4,743,274 units in 2024. The deficit increased by 43,438 homes, a much smaller rise than in 2022 and 2023. Zillow attributes the slowdown largely to increased housing supply, including a 50-year high in newly completed multifamily homes.
- The estimated national deficit stood at 4.74 million homes in 2024, while total housing units increased by about 1.4 million.
- Zillow says newly completed multifamily construction reached a 50-year high and helped housing supply nearly keep pace with demand.
- Affordability remains especially strained in California: May 2026 listings affordable to a median-income household represented 5.1% in Los Angeles, 13.9% in Sacramento, 15.9% in San Francisco and 10.2% in San Diego, versus 35.2% nationwide.
Why it matters: A slower-growing deficit may indicate improving supply conditions, but it does not erase affordability challenges. Zillow’s affordability measure assumes a 20% down payment and housing costs at or below 30% of median household income, so individual borrowers’ circumstances can differ.
Bottom line: More construction helped stabilize the national housing gap, while California remains among the markets where affordability is most limited.
HOUSING SNAPSHOT
3. June Home Sales Rebound 5.9%, But Inventory Growth Nearly Stalls
June brought a notable rebound in U.S. home sales, but Zillow’s data also points to a market that remains uneven: activity improved while the supply of available homes barely grew from a year earlier.
According to Zillow’s June Market Report, home sales and new listings improved in June while overall inventory growth nearly stalled.
Zillow’s June 2026 Market Report shows a stronger month for U.S. housing activity, with sales up 5.9% from a year earlier and 9.2% from May. New listings also rose 3% annually. However, year-over-year inventory growth slowed to 0.9%, its smallest increase since December 2023, according to Zillow. The company says the typical mortgage payment was 2.5% below last year’s level, excluding taxes and insurance.
- Zillow’s preliminary sales count reached 381,125, up 5.9% year over year and 9.2% from May; the company says these figures will be revised.
- New listings increased 3% annually to 403,811, while active inventory rose just 0.9% year over year to 1.39 million homes.
- The typical U.S. home value was $372,057, up 1.1% annually, and the typical mortgage payment was $1,884 with 20% down, excluding taxes and insurance.
Why it matters: Lower mortgage costs may improve affordability at the margin, but buyers still face different conditions by market and price tier. In Zillow’s table, Portland inventory was up 0.3% year over year and sales were up 9.1%; Los Angeles inventory was down 2% while sales rose 6.6%. These figures are market indicators, not a guarantee of a particular loan rate or outcome.
Bottom line: The June data suggests improving demand without a broad inventory surge, making local market conditions especially important for mortgage planning.
This RGI Mortgage Brief is for general educational purposes only. Programs, pricing, terms, eligibility, and availability may change and remain subject to complete review and lender approval. This is not a commitment to lend.